UNITED NATIONS - Genocide and other mass atrocities are underway or risk breaking out in at least 33 countries, says a new comprehensive watch list slated for release Tuesday - the 60th anniversary of the United Nations prevention of genocide convention.
As reports indicate UN peacekeeping efforts are in crisis amid dwindling contributions of both cash and well-trained forces, the authors of the new study call for an international focus on genocide prevention in countries they've identified.
Since the world pledged "never again" in the wake of the Holocaust, Cambodia, Rwanda and Bosnia-Herzegovina are but three examples of places where mass slaughter has occurred.
The list by the New York-based Genocide Prevention Project for the first time combines the findings of five leading independent watch lists to create a "watch list of watch lists."
"Red alert" countries include Afghanistan and Iraq alongside commonly known regions currently experiencing genocidal conflict such as Sudan's Darfur and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. These and Myanmar, Pakistan, Somalia and Sri Lanka all made the list's top eight because they appear in each of the five "expert" indexes.
The next 25 "orange alert" countries appear in at least three of the indexes and include China, Colombia, Philippines and Indonesia as places where ongoing or simmering violence could flare to genocidal proportions.
"It is possible to identify early indicators of mass atrocity crimes. But what happens now is the international community sees what's going on, gets paralyzed and, if it acts, really only acts after the fact," said Jill Savitt, project executive director.
"You don't see assertive proactive diplomacy in the earliest possible moments, when the bloodshed isn't widespread or before arms have come into the region."
The report says prudent application of "carrots and sticks" - which it describes as the panoply of economic, diplomatic and legal measures available to nations and the UN Security Council - can result in "averting an escalation of violence."
Savitt said what's been lacking in the past was "political will," but added that may change because of a convergence of recent factors.
One is the stated determination of Susan Rice, U.S. president-elect Barack Obama's choice for U.S. ambassador to the UN, to prevent future genocides after witnessing the after-effects of the 1994 Rwanda slaughter.
Another is current discussion around the 60th anniversary of the genocide prevention convention, which calls on countries to prevent and punish actions of genocide.
Finally, there is what Savitt called the public "guilt" over what occurred in Rwanda and Bosnia, and what she additionally called public "hunger for a response" to the Darfur crisis.
"There are things states can do like dispatching the highest-level envoy - someone of great stature who can call (British Prime Minister Gordon Brown's residence) 10 Downing Street, or the UN secretary general, or President Obama," she said. "There are all kinds of penalties and inducements, including trade and aid, membership in political bodies, or expulsion from them. And even simple public criticism can work."
Still, many analysts agree the international community has long had difficulty trying to change state behaviour purely using sanctions or diplomatic pressure.
Among countries in the project's list of 33, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Somalia, Sudan and Zimbabwe all face varying UN or state sanctions aimed at convincing them to obey the international will.
The list comes as Irwin Cotler, former justice minister and attorney general, Monday released a petition calling on countries that have signed the genocide convention to "hold Iran to account for its genocidal incitement."
"The enduring lesson of the Holocaust and that of the genocides that followed is that they occurred not simply because of the machinery of death, but because of the state-sanctioned incitement to hatred," Cotler said.
"In the case of Iran, there is no justification for inaction," he added, citing statements by Iranian leaders calling for the destruction of Israel.