Sabato's Crystal Ball

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Jump to VP lists: Democrats Republicans

The Crystal Ball‘s 2016 Electoral College ratings

Updated June 23, 2016

2016 Democratic Vice Presidential Watch

Updated July 6, 2015

Candidate		Key VP Advantages	Key VP Disadvantages
	Tim Kaine Senator, VA	•Swing-state senator, former governor •Has been a No. 2 as VA’s Lt. Gov. •Speaks Spanish fluently, Catholic missionary as young man •Dem governor would appoint his replacement	•Not going to excite Sanders’ voters •Not a powerful stump presence •Low profile in Senate
	Elizabeth Warren Senator, MA	•Progressives love her •Fundraising machine •Double woman ticket could expand gender gap	•Might pull ticket too far left •Could overshadow Clinton •’12 campaign baggage •GOP governor would appoint short-term replacement early in Clinton’s term
	Julián Castro Secretary of Housing and Urban Development	•Latino pol in an election where that demographic may be more important than ever •Dynamic, youthful; keynoted ’12 DNC	•Short governing resume •Ready for primetime campaign exposure?
	Cory Booker Senator, NJ	•African-American pol, could help minority turnout •Young, dynamic on the stump	•Closeness to Wall Street hurts with Sanders’ voters •Style over substance? •NY/NJ lacks geographic balance •GOP governor would appoint replacement
	Sherrod Brown Senator, OH	•Could ameliorate Clinton’s problems with left regarding trade issues •Populist/left appeal to Sanders backers •Swing-state senator	•Might pull ticket too far left •GOP governor would appoint his replacement
	Al Franken Senator, MN	•With comedy background, could be Clinton attack dog versus Trump •Dem governor would appoint his replacement •Possibly attractive to Sanders backers	•Might be too loose on the stump •Won’t excite minority voters
	Amy Klobuchar Senator, MN	•Popular woman senator from Midwest •Double woman ticket could expand gender gap •Dem governor would appoint her replacement	•Not going to excite Sanders’ voters or minority voters •Not a powerful stump presence
	Tom Perez Secretary of Labor	•Latino pol in an election where that demographic may be more important than ever	•Totally anonymous
	Xavier Becerra Congressman, CA	•Latino pol in an election where that demographic may be more important than ever •Member of House leadership, isn’t a backbencher •Good on TV	•House members rarely chosen (Paul Ryan in ’12 was an exception) •Not well-known nationally
	Deval Patrick Ex-Governor, MA	•African-American pol, could help minority turnout •Dynamic on the stump	•Mixed governing record •Now works for Bain Capital
	Ken Salazar Ex-Secretary of the Interior	•Latino politician from a swing state (CO) •Lengthy resume as senator, cabinet secretary •Westerner provides geographical diversity	•Too moderate? Could rankle Sanders’ voters •Very low key
	Mark Warner Senator, VA	•Strong executive record •Swing-state senator •Bipartisan respect in Senate	•Closeness to business sector hurts with Sanders’ voters •Might not have mindset to be a No. 2 •Nearly lost Senate seat in 2014
	Joaquín Castro Congressman, TX	•Latino pol in an election where that demographic may be more important than ever •Young, fresh face	•Less known than twin brother Julián •Ready for primetime campaign exposure?
	John Hickenlooper Governor, CO	•Swing-state governor •Former big-city mayor	•Not going to excite base
	Martin Heinrich Senator, NM	•Westerner •Youthful, well-liked by environmentalists	•Anonymous •GOP governor would appoint replacement •NM should be safe for Clinton
	Tom Vilsack Secretary of Agriculture	•Was relatively popular governor of swing state (IA) •Governing experience at state and federal level	•Not going to excite base •Largely anonymous nationally
	Bernie Sanders Senator, VT	•Would thrill millions of his backers and unify party to some degree after fractious campaign •Small-dollar fundraising machine	•Clearly could be at odds with Clinton on the campaign trail and in a future administration •Will pull ticket well to the left •Not going to excite minority voters •Six years older than Clinton
	Joe Biden Vice President	•Vast experience •Knows the job! Plus no moving expenses.	•Age (73 by Election Day ’16) •Has been critical of Clinton, would he want the job again?

Added

Rep. Xavier Becerra (CA)

Dropped

Ex-Sen. Evan Bayh (IN)
Gov. Terry McAuliffe (VA)
Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO)
Sen. Bill Nelson (FL)