Image: The Dirt Floor
Credit Suisse analyst Stefan Anninger wrote in a recent report on TV media that 200,000 fewer subscribers will pay for TV services in 2012, and that of 1.8 million new households formed last year only 16.9% of them signed up for pay-TV services. Previously, Anninger had forecast a rise in the number of TV subscribers buoyed by the slowly growing economy.
Traditional TV penetration in the U.S. is still high, at 83.2 percent (down from 84.1 last year). But the fact that Anninger sees a secular decline in TV in the future, unlinked from cyclical recessionary belt-tightening, forces a question for advertisers and other Big Media folk: How long can TV last in the face of iPads, internet TV, web video and other wireless video sources?
One answer is to look at the history of the phone. And by "phone" I mean the hard-wired telephone that used to be plugged into the wall of nearly 100 percent of American households just a few years ago. In 2004, everyone had a plain old telephone and no one measured the percentage of households that survived with only cellphone service. That changed in 2005, according to the U.S. Census and CTIA, a wireless industry body:
- Percentage of U.S. households with wireless-only phone service:
- 2004: Unmeasured
- 2005: 7.3%
- 2006: 10.5%
- 2007: 13.6%
- 2008: 17.5%
- 2009: 22.7%
- 2010: NA
- 2011: 29.7%
The collapse of the telephone took just five years.
Nearly one in three houses now has no telephone. In houses that retain phones, they're often used only as the number you give businesses you suspect will generated unwanted telemarketing calls; or they're there by default as part of a cheaper wireless bundle.
The TV business has been aware of the "cord-cutters" -- people abandoning TV in favor of Hulu, Netflix and YouTube -- for some time. The scary new demographic, according to Anninger, is the "cord-nevers": young people and students who have never paid for TV and don't see a reason to start now:
"They are growing up in an Internet-based video culture in which the mantras of 'why would I pay for TV?,' 'pay TV is a rip-off' and, 'I can find that for free on the web' are getting louder. We fear that some of these consumers will find pay TV far less relevant to their lives than do today’s adults."
Dumb ass youngsters!
Promise: If you PAY you'll be commercial free.
Result: commercials PLUS you have to pay
Outcome: people screwed, angry, and looking for other options. Bad economy provides the perfect opportunity
You don't need to pay for "free wireless TV". It's been there since the 1940s, and it will still be there five years from now.
When I have time to burn, I'll read about or stream something that I'm specifically interested in. Turning on cable and watching whatever is on at a given time (and sitting through commercials) isn't compelling.
Streaming is nice for the solo viewer but it does nothing for those with multiple sets with people having varied viewing habits, likes etc. I also have no interest in paying for an content. .99c an episode is crazy, Netflix and others have found there is no money in streaming, people want it free and the backbone needed to meet demand is expensive.
And why on earth would you want it to be a "tax-paid wireless network"? The last thing anyone wants is a new tax to pay for internet service to a house that isn't mine. I'll pay for what I use, you pay for what you use.
http://mankabros.com/blogs/onmedea/2011/04/01/broadcast-networks-on-death-and-dying/
Cable is getting horrible now. SyFy with wrestling, but cancel interesting sci fi shows. Spike showing the star wars trilogy last weekend with commercial breaks every 10 minutes. For the most part, why bother.
The only compelling tv I get is from hbo, showtime, and AMC. Wonderful exceptions to the norm.
I used to pay cable tv some years ago, a total waste of money and time. So now, I live happy without tv. When I want to see a documentary or film, I go to internet. When I want to see what's happening out there, I go to internet or physically "out there", talk to people.... When I want to know about a product, I go to internet. It's not the products (actually, the lies about the wonders of the products) that come to me via ads that keep showing up on tv again and again ad nauseam, but it's me who goes and searches for the information I need to take an informed decision. And honestly, with this no-tv police at home, I find I have more time to learn things, to be with my kid and do things together, to do more exercise, to have more time for friends... And for my kid is also better. At night, we go to internet, chose a move and watch it altogether. When the movie is over, is over. Time to do something different. TV keeps you on and on like enslaved, swallowing all the crap.
TV R.I.P.? So be it!
Cable and Network TV have been gouging their customers with the cheapest programs aimed at the lowest common denominator for so long, people have just had enough of it! The worst thing cable companies EVER did was add DVRs as it allows subscribers to CONFIRM they are paying for repeated rubbish over and over.
Then to add insult to injury, they install some Nazi in their payments department to offend customers who start resisting payment for the crap being supplied and hasten the exist rate.... brilliant business tactics!! The SECOND broadband had enough speed to handle video.... mass exoduce was inevitable!
Telco are just as brainless... Just to HAVE a land line now costs $30/month, but don't dare use it or the bill will quickly double. If you don'y pay within 10 days they want to add a 50% late fee.... these cretins are using the same business tactics as cable... namely 1) Overcharge for crap service 2) Alienate your customer by being a billing Nazi..... they're accelerating their own demise LOL Corporations run by idiots!
the ones that will stick to OTA + internet isn't likely going to pay for additional services so to cable services they make up 0% of the target market anyways. it'd be like marketing kobe steak to food stamp crowd.
VOD will be the future. People will only watch what they want to watch, and when they can watch it. I am too busy to sit through annoying and loud ads. Let me enjoy my show(s) and get on with life.