GET A QUOTE: Markets chart
 

Real solutions for your real estate needs.
Click here to begin
Financing Options:
Need help financing or refinancing a home? Click here
Investor fears outweigh stunning earnings gains
Updated  | Comment  | Recommend E-mail | Save | Print |
 CORPORATE EARNINGS MARCH HIGHER
S&P 500 companies are expected to average about 50% higher profit for the second quarter.
Growth from same period vs. a year ago
Q2 2010
49.0%1
Q1 2010
92.0%
Q4 2009
Not applicable2
Q3 2009
-1.0%
Q2 2009
-19.0%
1 = estimate; 2 = comparable period in 2008 was a loss; Source: Standard & Poor's
Investors may be fretting over the chance of a double-dip recession, but companies' earnings are coming in with sprinkles on top.

More than half of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 have reported quarterly earnings, 304, and 75% of them have beaten earnings estimates. Meanwhile, 63% have beaten revenue forecasts, Thomson Reuters says.

The numbers are even better than usual. In recent quarters, 69% of companies have beat earnings estimates and 61% have topped revenue estimates. "It's been going well," says Albert Meyer, manager of the Mirzam Capital Appreciation fund. "I don't see any sign of a double dip."

Meanwhile, companies overall are expected to post earnings 49% above the same quarter last year, S&P's Howard Silverblatt says. And there are new highs driving that performance. So far, companies are keeping a record 10.2 cents of every $1 of revenue after paying all their operating costs, Silverblatt says.

The results aren't doing much for stocks. The S&P 500 index, which fell 5 points Thursday to 1102, is having its best month in a year, but the market benchmark is only up 2% since earnings season kicked off on July 12 with Alcoa's report. That's because instead of the good news, investors are focusing on:

Fading guidance about the future. So far, three companies in the S&P 500 warned profit will be lower than expected in the third quarter for every one that said things would be better than previously estimated, Thomson Reuters' John Butters says. That's worse than usual, when typically two companies have bad things to say about the future for every one that is positive.

Weakening confidence by Wall Street analysts. For every analyst that boosted estimates for 2010 earnings, another one has cut them, says Dirk Van Dijk of Zacks Investment Research. During the first quarter, nearly three analysts raised expectations for every one that cut. And despite the solid second-quarter results, analysts aren't raising the total profit that they expect companies to earn this year and next, Butters says.

Lingering concerns about revenue growth. Companies' top-line quarterly growth is just 9%, Silverblatt says. Revenue has been better than expected, but growth is still anemic compared with earnings growth, he says.

Facing these troubling signs that the heady days of earnings growth could be moderating, investors are doing what they do best: worry.

"Corporate earnings are doing great," Van Dijk says. "But while we may not be in a double dip ... we have to muddle through."

Posted
Updated
E-mail | Save | Print |
To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.
Guidelines: You share in the USA TODAY community, so please keep your comments smart and civil. Don't attack other readers personally, and keep your language decent. Use the "Report Abuse" button to make a difference. Read more.