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By Matt Krantz, USA TODAY
Investors may be fretting over the chance of a double-dip recession, but companies' earnings are coming in with sprinkles on top.
More than half of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 have reported quarterly earnings, 304, and 75% of them have beaten earnings estimates. Meanwhile, 63% have beaten revenue forecasts, Thomson Reuters says. The numbers are even better than usual. In recent quarters, 69% of companies have beat earnings estimates and 61% have topped revenue estimates. "It's been going well," says Albert Meyer, manager of the Mirzam Capital Appreciation fund. "I don't see any sign of a double dip." Meanwhile, companies overall are expected to post earnings 49% above the same quarter last year, S&P's Howard Silverblatt says. And there are new highs driving that performance. So far, companies are keeping a record 10.2 cents of every $1 of revenue after paying all their operating costs, Silverblatt says. The results aren't doing much for stocks. The S&P 500 index, which fell 5 points Thursday to 1102, is having its best month in a year, but the market benchmark is only up 2% since earnings season kicked off on July 12 with Alcoa's report. That's because instead of the good news, investors are focusing on: •Fading guidance about the future. So far, three companies in the S&P 500 warned profit will be lower than expected in the third quarter for every one that said things would be better than previously estimated, Thomson Reuters' John Butters says. That's worse than usual, when typically two companies have bad things to say about the future for every one that is positive. •Weakening confidence by Wall Street analysts. For every analyst that boosted estimates for 2010 earnings, another one has cut them, says Dirk Van Dijk of Zacks Investment Research. During the first quarter, nearly three analysts raised expectations for every one that cut. And despite the solid second-quarter results, analysts aren't raising the total profit that they expect companies to earn this year and next, Butters says. •Lingering concerns about revenue growth. Companies' top-line quarterly growth is just 9%, Silverblatt says. Revenue has been better than expected, but growth is still anemic compared with earnings growth, he says. Facing these troubling signs that the heady days of earnings growth could be moderating, investors are doing what they do best: worry. "Corporate earnings are doing great," Van Dijk says. "But while we may not be in a double dip ... we have to muddle through."
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