Image: Mohamed ElBaradei speaks in Tahrir Square
Peter Macdiarmid  /  Getty Images
Opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei addresses supporters in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Sunday.
By HELENE COOPER and SCOTT SHANE
The New York Times
updated 2 hours 41 minutes ago 2011-02-01T10:11:57

When President Obama unexpectedly won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009, one predecessor was quick to applaud his selection for the award.

“I could not have thought of any other person that is more deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize than Barack Obama,” Mohamed ElBaradei, then the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in a videotaped statement. He went on to praise Mr. Obama’s commitment “to restore moral decency” to the lives of people around the world.

Story: 'March of a million' demands Mubarak's ouster

But on Sunday, Mr. ElBaradei, now a prominent face of the opposition on the streets of Cairo, was sounding a different tune. “The American government cannot ask the Egyptian people to believe that a dictator who has been in power for 30 years will be the one to implement democracy,” Mr. ElBaradei told CBS’s “Face the Nation.” He called the United States’ refusal to openly abandon President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt “a farce.”

Mr. ElBaradei, 68, had a fractious relationship with the Bush administration, one so hostile that Bush officials tried to get him removed from his post at the atomic watchdog agency. But as Egypt’s powerful Muslim Brotherhood and the secular opposition on the streets of Cairo have increasingly coalesced around Mr. ElBaradei to negotiate on their behalf, the Obama administration is scrambling to figure out whether he is someone with whom the United States can deal.

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Since the protests in Egypt erupted, Obama administration officials have been trying to reach Mr. ElBaradei, but they had not made contact as of Monday afternoon, a White House official said. “I think that outreach is ongoing,” said Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary.

Besides both winning Nobel prizes (Mr. ElBaradei won his Peace Prize in 2005), Mr. Obama and Mr. ElBaradei both opposed the war in Iraq, a position that tainted Mr. ElBaradei’s relations with the Bush administration. Mr. Obama and Mr. ElBaradei spoke by telephone three times in the fall of 2009, as the nuclear agency director was finishing up his term, and the two men met in September 2009 at the United Nations, where Mr. Obama was hosting a nuclear security summit meeting. They talked about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, a White House official said.

Diplomatic cables obtained by WikiLeaks showed that Mr. ElBaradei was enthusiastic about Mr. Obama in the early months of his presidency. In April 2009, a cable reported, he told the American representative to the I.A.E.A., Gregory L. Schulte, that on a recent tour of Latin America “his message to each government had been to ‘help President Obama succeed.’ ” He praised Mr. Obama’s April 2009 speech in Prague on nuclear disarmament, which had echoed some of his own proposals, declaring “with a laugh that he could have written it himself.”

Views on Mideast issues
But now, the biggest questions fmor the Obama administration are Mr. ElBaradei’s views on issues related to Israel, Egypt and the United States. For instance, both the United States and Israel have counted on the Egyptians to enforce their part of the blockade of Gaza, which is controlled by the militant Islamist group Hamas.

But in an interview last June with the London-based Al Quds Al-Arabi, Mr. ElBaradei called the Gaza blockade “a brand of shame on the forehead of every Arab, every Egyptian and every human being.” He called on his government, and on Israel, to end the blockade, which Israeli and Egyptian officials argue is needed to ensure security.

Interactive: Timelines, profile & U.S. ties (on this page)

During an I.A.E.A. board of governors meeting in June 2009, Mr. ElBaradei clashed sharply with Israel’s representative over a Syrian reactor destroyed in an Israeli airstrike in 2007. An American cable from Vienna said that Israel had ignored advice not to criticize Mr. ElBaradei publicly, and he responded in kind, accusing Israel of violating international law.

Joseph Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund and a friend of Mr. ElBaradei, said Monday that Mr. ElBaradei wanted Israel to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Israel, along with India and Pakistan, is not a signatory.

One senior Obama administration official said that it was not lost on the administration that Mr. ElBaradei’s contentious relations with the Bush administration helped explain why he was now being viewed by some as a credible face of the opposition in Egypt.

“Ironically, the fact that ElBaradei crossed swords with the Bush administration on Iraq and Iran helps him in Egypt, and God forbid we should do anything to make it seem like we like him,” said Philip D. Zelikow, former counselor at the State Department during the Bush years. For all of his tangles with the Bush administration, Mr. ElBaradei, an international bureaucrat well known in diplomatic circles, is someone whom the United States can work with, Mr. Zelikow said.

However, he allowed, “Some people in the administration had a jaundiced view of his work.”

A 'political dilettante'
Among them was John Bolton, the former Bush administration United States ambassador to the United Nations, who routinely clashed with Mr. ElBaradei on Iran. “He is a political dilettante who is excessively pro-Iran,” he complained. Even some of Mr. ElBaradei’s staff members chafed a bit when he softened the edges of I.A.E.A. reports, especially on Iran. They believed he was doing everything he could to avoid giving the Bush administration, or Israel, a reason to launch a military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Mr. ElBaradei’s term ended early in Mr. Obama’s tenure, so any real differences over how to handle Iran never came to a head. And when he left, he said over a dinner that he was enormously admiring of Mr. Obama, chiefly because the new president had adopted much of Mr. ElBaradei’s nuclear agenda.

Video: ElBaradei addresses protesters

When Mr. ElBaradei returned to Egypt for a visit last February, American diplomats observing his reception thought he had some potential to become an anchor for the political opposition, according to diplomatic cables.

At the same time, American diplomats underscored the limits of his appeal, saying his “broader public support remains unclear” and quoting news reports and members of the ruling party as mocking him as an arrogant outsider.

“Many criticized his intention to ‘impose conditions’ on Egypt from afar and his desire to see the presidency given to him on a ‘silver platter,’ ” a cable said.

David E. Sanger contributed reporting.

This article, "U.S. Scrambles to Size Up ElBaradei," first appeared in The New York Times.

Copyright © 2010 The New York Times

Video: Hovering on the brink of a revolution

  1. Closed captioning of: Hovering on the brink of a revolution

    >>> and good evening tonight from cairo in egypt where we found a safe spot to do our broadcast tonight and cobbled together a few ways to get the pictures and sound on the air, though it may be something less than our usual broadcast quality . it's such an important story entering day seven of what may turn out to be a genuine top-to-bottom change, people's revolution, and in the process may rewrite the contemporary history of this region. each day we say it, but it's true. this enters a new stage again tomorrow, and that's because of the promised size of what they're calling the million person march in cairo . we've seen so many television pictures of the main public square there. never quite empty as people flaunt the curfew. a lot of that is going on in the highly populated areas. people are more respectful of the curfew, staying off the roads as you get to the outskirts of town. and then there's the exodus out of here. thousands of people hoping to hop on commercial scheduled or special charter flights. oil companies getting their employees out, various countries, and that includes, of course, hundreds of americans at the airport trying to get out. we have all of it covered. we have the entire region covered. our entire team is here with us. that includes richard engle, who for days has been down in the thick of it in central cairo . he starts off our coverage tonight. richard , good evening.

    >> reporter: good evening, brian . egyptians are bracing for what happens in this country when the sun comes up. the protesters are expected to gather here in cairo 's main square and then march on the presidential palace . egypt is heading for its biggest showdown yet. tens of thousands flooded into tahrir square today, but this was just a prologue. organizers are calling for a million people to go to the square tomorrow to demand that president hosni mubarak step down. this morning in cairo , the army was making preparations. reinforcements were called in to seal off downtown, check i.d. cards and prevent journalists from taking pictures. some soldiers fired warning shots in the air. but demonstrators kept streaming into tahrir , which in arabic means liberation.

    >> even if the army wins, we are not afraid.

    >> reporter: protesters are now gathering here from across egypt . this is becoming the first truly nationwide demonstration. the police also returned to the streets today, but stayed away from the demonstrators. they don't want to repeat what happened last friday. clashes with demonstrators amid clouds of tear gas and, as seen in this new footage from al jazeera , running over demonstrators. today some egyptians jeered and baited policemen, accusing them of supporting a corrupt regime. president mubarak still seems to be looking for a compromise by reshuffling his government. mubarak 's new vice president went on television to say he wants a dialogue with the opposition. but it may be too late.

    >> that's the end. that's the end of the mubarak era.

    >> reporter: the protesters are no longer just young people fed up with mubarak . the muslim brotherhood , a banned islamic group here, is now taking a prominent role. one of its leaders was a main speaker in tahrir today. the muslim brotherhood denounces terrorism, but supports islamic law , is anti-israel and opposes u.s. foreign policy in the middle east . tonight i visited the muslim brotherhood 's main office to interview one of the group's most senior leaders. he just escaped from prison this weekend.

    >> the majority of egyptians are muslims, respecting islam and the minority has its rights. they are citizens. we are calling for a civil state, democratic state , which respects religion, respects all religions and gives all the citizens equal rights .

    >> reporter: he lost his voice because he went from his jail cell straight to cheering in tahrir . he says the brotherhood can work with the u.s. and compromise but offered no specifics.

    >> if the egyptian government falls, isn't the muslim brotherhood just going to take over and isn't that bad for stability in the middle east ?

    >> if they respect democratic principles , they must respect the choice of the people.

    >> reporter: the instability in egypt is terrifying foreign residents. in an apartment debbie alcala from phoenix was packing up today. she's lived in egypt for years but decided to go after she spoke to her son.

    >> it's not the way i thought i would leave. but i hope i'll be back. i have a business here.

    >> reporter: so far the protests have not been anti-american, brian . and in tahrir square now you'll find young and old, religious and secular egyptians , but mostly people working class who are just tired of 30 years of mubarak 's rule. brian .

    >> richard engle in the middle of it all again today and where tomorrow a new stage begins. richard , thanks.

Photos: Egyptians take to the streets - Week 2

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  1. Anti-government protesters pray during a rally at the Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt, on Tuesday, Feb. 1. On the eighth day of protests against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, demonstrators have called for a 'million-man march'. (Hannibal Hanschke / EPA) Back to slideshow navigation
  2. Anti-government protesters shout slogans as they march toward Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo, Egypt on Tuesday, Feb. 1. Egyptian authorities have battled to save President Hosni Mubarak's regime with a series of concessions and promises to protesters, but realities on the streets of Cairo may be outrunning his capacity for change. (Emilio Morenatti / AP) Back to slideshow navigation
  3. An effigy depicting President Hosni Mubarak is seen hanging on a traffic light as anti-government protesters demonstrate in Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo, Egypt on Tuesday, Feb. 1. (Emilio Morenatti / AP) Back to slideshow navigation
  4. Thousands of Egyptians gather in Cairo's Tahrir Square heeding a call by the opposition for a "march of a million" to mark a week of protests calling for the ouster of Hosni Mubarak's long term regime on Tuesday, Feb. 1. (Miguel Medina / AFP - Getty Images) Back to slideshow navigation
  5. An Egyptian policeman cries as he receives a warm welcome by pro-Mubarak supporters in Cairo, Egypt on Tuesday, Feb. 1, three days after the police disappeared from the streets, following Friday's demonstrations, Egypt's largest anti-Mubarak protest. (Amr Nabil / AP) Back to slideshow navigation
  6. Egyptians spend the night in Cairo's Tahrir Square, following a seventh day of protests calling for the removal of President Hosni Mubarak's regime on Monday, Jan. 31. (Khaled Desouki / AFP - Getty Images) Back to slideshow navigation
  7. Egyptian police are halted at a checkpoint set up by one of many neighborhood watch groups of men armed with metal bars and sticks on a bridge in Cairo, Egypt, on Monday, Jan. 31. (Emilio Morenatti / AP) Back to slideshow navigation
  8. Protesters gather in Tahrir Square, in Cairo, Egypt, on Monday in what marked the seventh day of demonstrations. Soldiers looked on without taking action. (Lefteris Pitarakis / AP) Back to slideshow navigation
  9. An Egyptian army captain identified as Ihab Fathi holds the national flag and salutes while being carried by demonstrators during a protest in Tahrir Square in Cairo on Jan. 31, 2011. (Marco Longari / AFP - Getty Images) Back to slideshow navigation
  10. Egyptians buy bread before the start of the evening curfew in Cairo on Monday. Everyday life in Cairo has been turned upside down by the largest anti-government protests in decades. Schools are closed and businesses boarded up; the usual bumper-to-bumper traffic is now little more than a trickle; and the capital's famed nightlife has been snuffed out by a 3 p.m. to 8 a.m. curfew. (Amr Nabil / AP) Back to slideshow navigation
  11. Egytpian demonstrators shout slogans as they stand in Tahrir Square in Cairo on Monday, calling for the removal of Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak. Protesters blame the Mubarak regime for widespread poverty, inflation, official indifference and brutality. (Marco Longari / AFP - Getty Images) Back to slideshow navigation
  12. People gather in Cairo international airport while waiting to check in for their flights on Monday. Thousands of Americans and other foreigners scrambled to flee unrest in Egypt, turning the airport into a scene of confusion. (Miguel Medina / AFP - Getty Images) Back to slideshow navigation
  13. Egyptian soldiers and civilians gather in Tahrir Square in central Cairo on Monday. (Felipe Trueba / EPA) Back to slideshow navigation
  14. An army tank blocks traffic over the river Nile near Tahrir square in Cairo on Monday as protesters intensified their campaign to force Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak to quit. (Yannis Behrakis / Reuters) Back to slideshow navigation
  15. Egyptian special forces secure the main floor inside the Egyptian Museum in Cairo on Monday. People broke into Cairo's famed Egyptian Museum on Saturday, ripping heads off two mummies and damaging artifacts before being caught and detained. (Tara Todras-Whitehill / AP) Back to slideshow navigation
  16. Local men sit next to closed shops Monday in Cairo. Despite the ongoing protests, police and garbage collectors were appearing on the streets of Cairo and subway stations reopened after soldiers and neighborhood watch groups armed with clubs and machetes kept the peace in many districts overnight. (Peter Macdiarmid / Getty Images) Back to slideshow navigation
  17. Women walk past a damaged shopping center in Cairo, Egypt, on Monday. (Lefteris Pitarakis / AP) Back to slideshow navigation
  18. At first light, people start to arrive Monday in Tahrir Square to join those who stayed overnight in the center of the capital. (Hannibal Hanschke / EPA) Back to slideshow navigation
  19. The crowd gathers in Tahrir, or Liberation, Square in Cairo, Egypt, Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2011. Tens of thousands of people flooded into the heart of Cairo Tuesday, filling the city's main square as a call for a million protesters was answered by the largest demonstration in a week of unceasing demands for President Hosni Mubarak to leave after nearly 30 years in power. (Khalil Hamra / AP) Back to slideshow navigation
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  1. Image: Anti-government protests in Cairo
    Felipe Trueba / EPA
    Above: Slideshow (19) Egyptians take to the streets - Week 2
  2. Image: Mohamed ElBaradei
    Khalil Hamra / AP
    Slideshow (83) Egyptians take to the streets - Week 1
  3. Image: Tunisian students shout slogans during a
    Fethi Belaid / AFP - Getty Images
    Slideshow (20) Egyptians take to the streets - World reaction

Explainer: Key players in Egyptian protests

  • Image: A senior army officer salutes a crowd of cheering protesters at Tahrir square in Cairo
    YANNIS BEHRAKIS  /  Reuters
    A senior army officer salutes a crowd of cheering protesters at Tahrir square in Cairo.

    Protesters stormed Cairo streets in a bid to drive Hosni Mubarak from power, even as the longtime president set the stage for a successor by naming his intelligence chief as his first-ever vice president.

    The following are key players in the unfolding crisis.

    Sources: The Associated Press, Reuters

  • President

    Image: Mubarak
    Khaled Desouki  /  AFP - Getty Images
    Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak

    Name: Hosni Mubarak
    Age: 82
    Role: The former air force commander has ruled Egypt for 30 years as leader of the National Democratic Party. Fierce protesters have pushed him into naming a vice president for the first time in three decades.
    Background: Mubarak was thrust into office when Islamists gunned down his predecessor Anwar Sadat at a military parade in 1981. He has long promoted peace abroad and on the domestic front he has kept a tight lid on political opposition. He has resisted any significant political change even under pressure from the United States. The U.S. has poured billions of dollars of military and other aid into Egypt since it became the first Arab state to make peace with Israel, signing a treaty in 1979.
    Controversy: Mubarak won the first multicandidate presidential election in 2005 although the outcome was never in doubt and his main rival came in a distant second. Rights groups and observers said the election was marred by irregularities.
    Personal note: There have been questions about his health after surgery in Germany last March.

  • New VP

    Arno Burgi  /  EPA
    Omar Suleiman

    Name: Omar Suleiman
    Age: 74
    Role: The intelligence chief and Mubarak confidant became Egypt's first vice president in three decades on Jan. 29. The move clearly set up a succession that would hand power to Suleiman and keep control of Egypt in the hands of military men.
    Military man: He has been the director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Services since 1993, a part in which he has played a prominent public role in diplomacy, including in Egypt's relations with Israel and the United States. In 1992 he headed the General Operations Authority in the Armed Forces and then became the director of the military intelligence unit before taking over EGIS. Suleiman took part in the war in Yemen in 1962 and the 1967 and 1973 wars against Israel.
    Intel chief: Suleiman was in charge of the country's most important political security files, and was the mastermind behind the fragmentation of Islamist groups who led the uprising against the state in the 1990s.

  • New PM

    Image: Ahmed Shafiq
    Mohamed Abd El Ghany  /  Reuters
    Egypt's Civil Aviation Minister Ahmed Shafiq.

    Name: Ahmed Shafiq
    Age: 69
    Role: President Mubarak appointed Shafiq as prime minister on Jan. 29.
    Background: A close associate of Mubarak, Shafiq has been minister of civil aviation since 2002. As minister of civil aviation, Shafiq has won a reputation for efficiency and administrative competence. He has supervised a successful modernization program at the state airline, EgyptAir, and improvements to the country's airports.
    Former fighter pilot: Shafiq served as commander of the Egyptian air force between 1996 and 2002, a post Mubarak held before he became vice president of Egypt under former President Anwar Sadat.

  • Rival

    Mohamed ElBaradei
    John Macdougall  /  AFP - Getty Images
    Mohamed ElBaradei

    Name: Mohamed ElBaradei
    Age: 68
    Role: The Nobel Peace Prize winner joined demonstrators trying to oust Mubarak. ElBaradei has suggested he might run for president if democratic and constitutional change were implemented.
    Atomic watchdog: ElBaradei joined the International Atomic Energy Agency in 1984 and served as its director-general in 1997. He transformed the IAEA into a body bold enough to take a stand on political issues relating to peace and proliferation, despite critics' belief that it was not its place. In 2005, ElBaradei and the IAEA were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. He retired in 2009.
    Law and diplomacy: He studied law, graduating from the University of Cairo and the New York University School of Law. He began his career in the Egyptian diplomatic service in 1964, working twice in the permanent missions of Egypt to the United Nations in New York and Geneva. He was in charge of political, legal and arms control issues. He was a special assistant to the Egyptian foreign minister and was a member of the team that negotiated the peace settlement with Israel at Camp David in 1978. He joined the United Nations two years later.
    On Iraq: ElBaradei was outspoken on the lack of evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq before the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, which angered the Bush administration.

  • On guard

    Image:
    Lefteris Pitarakis  /  AP
    Egyptian army soldiers in Tahrir square in Cairo.

    Name: Egyptian Armed Forces
    Role: The army remains the most powerful institution in Egypt's chaotic nation, and whatever it does next will determine the future of the Arab world's most populous country. The military appeared to be going to great lengths to calm the country without appearing opposed to  demonstrations. 
    Background: Egypt's 500,000-man army has long enjoyed the respect of citizens who perceive it as the country's least corrupt and most efficient public institution, particularly compared to a police force notorious for heavy handedness and corruption. It is touted as having defeated Israel in the 1973 Mideast War, and revered for that role.
    Stabilizer: The military, for its part, sees itself as the guarantor of national stability and above the political fray, loyal to both the government and what it sees as the interests of the general population. The military has given Egypt all of its four presidents since the monarchy was toppled in 1952.
    Provider:  Although it has almost completely withdrawn from politics since 1952, the army has added to its strength by venturing into economic activity, playing a growing role in such key service industries as food production and construction. It stepped in 2008 during an acute shortage of bread, Egypt's main stable, which it provided from its own bakeries. It has since opened outlets for basic food items sold as vastly discounted prices.

  • The Brotherhood

    Image: Mohamed Badie
    Asmaa Waguih  /  Reuters
    Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohamed Badie

    Name: Muslim Brotherhood
    Role: The brotherhood is Egypt's largest and most organized political opposition movement. Banned in 1954 on charges of using violence, members returned to Egypt to show support in protests.
    Background: The group said it has since denounced violence and expanded its international presence. It has participated in Egyptian elections as independents despite frequent crackdowns. It surprisingly won about 20 percent of the 454 seats in 2005 parliamentary elections and since then, authorities have jailed around 5,000 of its members. The group believes in Islamic rule.
    New audience: The Muslim Brotherhood is the focus of a TV series, "Al-Gamaa," or "The Group," which centers on a 2009 court case in which members were accused of setting up a student militia.

  • Mubarak's son

    Image: Gamal Mubarak
    Khaled El Fiqi  /  EPA
    Gamal Mubarak

    Name: Gamal Mubarak
    Age: 47
    Role: Served as secretary general of his father's National Democratic Party.
    Background: As he leaped up party ranks over the years, the younger Mubarak has avoided confirming or categorically denying he has ever intended to seek the presidency. His credentials as the guide of Egypt's economy suffered a setback when food prices soared in 2008 and street protests over low wages, unemployment and a higher cost of living grew in frequency. Still, he has touted the fruits of his liberalization reforms: creation of jobs over the past five years, economic growth and rises in salaries for state employees. Gamal, unlike his father and Egypt's other presidents, does not have a military background.

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