The following are excerpts from a March 9 Chicago Tribune article by Jon Hilkevitch.  

Passengers on U.S. airlines will pay relatively small increases in airfares over the next 20 years, but they should expect more flights crowding the nation’s busiest airports, including O’Hare International, the Federal Aviation Administration said Tuesday.

Travelers hoping to stretch out across an empty seat next to them will likely be out of luck. And, sorry, the small regional jets that are so unpopular among a significant segment of passengers are here to stay, although the commuter airlines will begin retiring their 50-seat jets in favor of somewhat larger aircraft.

The FAA now says it will take until 2023 to hit the 1 billion mark, indicating modest annual growth from the 704 million passengers carried in 2009 by U.S. airlines, on both domestic and international flights. Total passengers will rise to 1.21 billion by 2030, the agency said.

Coming off 2009, when U.S. airlines lost $8.1 billion, the total number of commercial flights is forecast to decrease 2.7 percent this year, the FAA said.  Flight volumes will then grow at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent by 2030, the FAA said.

Jetliners, which are nearly full on most flights today as the carriers try to prop up airfares, will stay that way, leveling out at 82 percent of all seats occupied on flights over the next 20 years, the FAA said.

While most passengers will continue to fly on the big, mainline airlines, that segment of the industry will grow the slowest over the forecast period, officials said. The biggest percentage gains will occur on international flights, followed by regional commuter airlines that operate smaller aircraft. Those regional airlines bucked the negative industry trend by turning a profit in 2009, FAA officials noted.

Twenty-nine large hub airports, including O’Hare and Midway, are projected to handle the bulk of the increased flights, growing at an average of 3 percent a year in landings and takeoffs through 2030, the FAA said.  It means that to prevent aviation gridlock, the FAA must complete its ambitious transformation of the nation’s air-traffic system, dubbed NextGen, to a satellite-based system that replaces the current ground-based radar.

So what does all of this mean for Private/ Business Aviation?

The airlines are going to crowd more people on aircraft by constraining supply in an effort to raise prices; they are going to use more regional airliners; they are going to focus more on the 29 major airports in the U.S., and focus more on international flights.  This looks like mass transit to me.

None of these trends provide better solutions for business travelers in small and mid size markets.

What it does spell is more delays, crowded flights, less tolerance on bad weather days at crowded hubs (I am feeling that right now sitting at ATL on a busy travel day and bad weather).

In all of this I see opportunity like never before for the general aviation and business aviation sectors to step up to fill the voids and ease the pain.  There are 5500 airports and the airlines are going to focus growth on the top 29? They only fly to around 500 airports in total so that leaves a lot of room for private aviation to provide point-to-point solutions between the rest of the nation’s airports.  

Air travel is supposed to be about time efficiency and if the FAA is correct in their forecast, the time to travel by air mass-transit is going to slow down even more, which widens the gap in time gained by flying private and helps close the gap in costs when you value your time.