Is there something wrong with Alex Smith? – a one game analysis

Alex Smith under scrutiny - again.

National writers say Alex Smith has lost his confidence over the last two games. 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh and his offensive coordinator Greg Roman suggested that Smith’s sprained middle finger on his throwing hand is affecting his throws.
With the 49ers back in action Monday Night in Arizona, someone needs to figure out why Alex Smith has thrown four interceptions and just one touchdown in the last two games.
We did an extensive analysis of Smith’s last game against the Seahawks, when Smith completed 14 of 23 passes for 140 yards an interception and a touchdown. Here’s what we found.

NOT SEEING RECEIVERS

Smith had trouble getting the ball to his wide receivers and he also struggled seeing receivers over the middle.
For example, Smith had receivers open 12 or more yards down the middle of the field and failed to spot them, including two receivers who were in the end zone. Here they are:
1). Second drive of the game. On first down, Smith rolled out and failed to see tight end Vernon Davis 12 yards down the field. Smith eventually threw the ball away.
2). Same drive, on third-and-9 from the Seattle 18, Smith had Michael Crabtree open in the end zone and never saw him. He was eventually sacked for a 2-yard loss and David Akers kicked a 38-yard field goal on fourth down.
3) On the 49ers first drive of the fourth quarter, Smith faced a third down from the Seattle 7. He had Randy Moss open in the end zone but never saw him as he rolled to his left. When running back Frank Gore, who was covered in the flat, pointed to Moss, Smith threw the ball too late and too short and cornerback Brandon Browner intercepted it easily.

HAPPY FEET

Underlying the three aforementioned mistakes was bad pocket presence. Smith, particularly on his interception, fled the pocket when he didn’t need to do so. In this game, the offensive line consistently allowed Smith over three seconds in the pocket. The Seahawks rarely blitzed and the line protected extremely well. However Smith never reconfigured the clock in his head to allow for more time in the pocket.

LONG THROWS LACKING

Smith’s two passes of over 20 yards, which went to wide receiver Kyle Williams on the first drive, were drastically overthrown. This could be a result of Smith’s injured middle finger.
On throws in the 10- to 20-yard range, Smith completed 2 of 3, with a 14-yarder to Randy Moss and an 18-yarder to Williams. The problem was, Smith only threw in the intermediate range three times partially because of the reasons mentioned above – Smith’s lack of vision and pocket presence.
But the major reason was the Seattle defensive backs, particularly their cornerbacks who disrupted the wide receivers timing by holding them up at the line of scrimmage. They also blanketed the receivers once they got off the line. Smith often had nowhere to go.

WHAT SMITH DID RIGHT

The Seahawks also devoted a linebacker and safety over the top to tight end Vernon Davis. He said after the game that there was nothing for him, meaning he was completely covered. The 49ers began using Davis as a decoy in the third quarter. He ran clearing routes and Smith threw short passes underneath the coverage.
That strategy proved brilliant on the team’s 10-play, 86-yard touchdown drive in the third quarter. Smith went 5-for-5 for 60 yards on the march, but never threw the ball more than 5 yards down field. In a low scoring game, Smith ultimately did what was required to win.

CONCLUSION

So what’s wrong with Smith, to the extent there was something wrong in a win, was fourfold
1. Smith was ineffective throwing long.
2. He had trouble spotting receivers over the middle.
3. He didn’t realize how much time he had in the pocket.
4. The Seattle secondary did an outstanding job shutting down the 49ers receivers.

And let’s not forget what went right
1. Smith was accurate and saw the field well on short passes in the third quarter.
2. He was the winning quarterback.

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